The Israeli Defense Forces reported shooting down an Iranian Drone or Unmanned Aerial Vehicle [UAV] originating from the Syrian Border into Israel. The significance of this type of attack signals a renewed escalation of the so called “Arab-Israeli” conflict.
Iran has not denied their role in the attack. The remains of the downed UAV tell a deeper story and create more questions. Among them is the fact that this UAV was back – engineered from American UAV stealth technology captured by Iran under the Obama Administration in 2011, when it was somehow attained in Afghanistan. Iranian UAV knock-off of US UAV
“Iran triumphantly displayed one of America’s most advanced intelligence-gathering aircraft on Thursday after a spy drone crashed on its territory, leading Russia and China to ask to inspect its technology.”
Now revealed is the obvious outcome of the mysterious loss of this technology and the ramifications it promises. For instance, if Iran shared the technology with Russia and China, then they too have an advantage in this arena. Also, if this is an example of what Iran does with stolen U.S. stealth/drone technology, then that is a clear indication of what is to be expected should they attain nuclear weapons technology.
A brief analysis on the anatomy of this attack suggest there was a new tactic employed here to likely probe IDF and IAF defenses.
First, how far into Israeli territory did the stealth UAV penetrate before being detected and defenses deployed. This is needed to plan future attacks.
Next, it seems the UAV was used as bait to lure in the IAF. The IAF were deployed, but one of the US made F-16’s was shot down by the Iranian manned air-defense batteries and it was reported that the pilots barely escaped. The shoot-down also reveals the IAF were unable to evade the ground to air missiles that should not be able to catch up to a US F-16.
Additionally, this demonstrates that Iran has moved onto Syrian territory and is commanding militia along the Israeli border, armed with surface to air missile batteries demonstrating the capacity to shoot down IAF F-16’s and deft use of U.S. Stealth technology in back-engineered drones.
This is an inescapable indictment of the former Administration’s legacy of regional instability in Syria by supporting and arming factions of the Al-Nusra brigades and subsequent influx of ISIS. Which resulted in this key piece of territory falling into the hands of Iran and its’ proxy forces armed with U.S. Stealth technology. Which also fell into the hands of Iran, seemingly intact, which defies explanation in of itself.
This attack signals the beginning of a new type of conflict that aims to draw the Israelis into the Syrian debacle. Israel sat on the side-lines while Syria was being torn apart by powerful external forces.
Since it was Russian and American resolve that defeated ISIS and drove out their remnants into the arms of Turkey; Iran seeks to galvanize the Jihadist and redirect their holy war against Israel with Iran as the puppet master.
Young Muslims in the region are indoctrinated beyond logic to believe that Israel alone is responsible for all that is bad in the Islamic world and Israel’s destruction is the only solution.
Prime Minister Netanyahu warned the U.S. Congress of this in his address in 2015 dissuading the Obama Administration from a “bad deal” that would give Iran a nuclear weapon:
“Iran and ISIS are competing for the crown of militant Islam. One calls itself the Islamic Republic. The other calls itself the Islamic State. Both want to impose a militant Islamic empire first on the region and then on the entire world. They just disagree among themselves who will be the ruler of that empire.” ~ Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – U.S. Congress 2015
The emerging geo-political challenge to policy planners presented by this attack is the Syrian Assad regime will ally itself with those who will help keep their power and national borders in tact. Russia has taken on that role. Given the choice; Israel would prefer a Syria allied with Russia serving their own internal interest than with Iran dedicated to killing Jews. Given the choice; Saudi Arabia would prefer Assad at peace with Israel than allied with Iran whose ultimate sights are on taking Mecca away from them.
The Trump Administration is faced with the sticky job of untangling itself from the former failed policy and adjusting to the new reality of an unfriendly NATO member; Turkey, who is preferred to ally with Iran than with the U.S. to achieve their mutual Caliphate restoration aspirations and domination of Europe. Within a generation they intend to harvest a Europe seeded with the Muslim men now planted by an ill advised open border policy.
What this all means is this is not just a simple game of thrones. Understand there is a long term plan in play here. The unintended outcome could light a match in a tinder box and spark another great war.
Or cooler heads prevail. Intelligently bring together former adversaries for the sake of mutual cooperation and peace between nations and tribes. It will require an illuminating moment of clarity for all to realize the one guiding divine edict of rulership among civilized human beings is simply to live and let live.